A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
